This module emerged out of the need to equip leaders to make decisions environments that are volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA). Whether it be responding to a disaster situation, engaging an enemy in combat, responding to an economic or political crises or responding to dynamically changing market forces leaders need to be embrace this VUCA world and adapt accordingly.
The concept of the OODA loop was created by a US Fighter Pilot and Instructor named John Boyd. His nickname was “40-second Boyd” for his standing bet as an instructor pilot that beginning from a position of disadvantage, he could defeat any opposing pilot in air combat maneuvering in less than 40 seconds.
The OODA loop is a decision making tool originally designed to help pilots win during air-to-air combat. Based on the philosophy that reacting faster to changing circumstances that your competition puts you at a competitive advantage. Even though the originated in the context of confronting an enemy or competitor – it still has relevance in the context of disaster or crisis response.
Let’s begin with the original context of warfare. According to Boyd the atmosphere of war is friction. Friction is generated and magnified by menace, ambiguity, rapidity, mistrust, etc. Friction is diminished by implicit understanding, trust, cooperation, simplicity, focus, etc. In this sense, variety and rapidity tend to magnify friction, while harmony and initiative tend to diminish friction. This last point is also true in crisis or disaster situations. For the fighter pilot their task is to reduce friction on their side, while increasing it for the other side. Or equivalently, we could say our task is to generate harmony and initiative so that we can exploit variety and rapidity.
The aim is not to increase our capacity to perform command and control. It is not more command and control that we are after. Instead, we seek to decrease the amount of command and control that we need. We do this by replacing coercive command and control methods with spontaneou, self-disciplined cooperation based on
- Low-level initiative
- A commonly understood leader’s intent
- Mutual trust, and
- Implicit understanding and communications
In such an environment, harmony, or focus and direction, in operations is created by bonds of implicit communications and trust that evolves as a consequence of learning together or teaming.
The OODA in OODA loop stands for Observe, Orient, Decide and Act. See the diagram below:
Remember the context for this decision making model. It was designed to aid fighter pilots during aerial combat. This means that a pilot is continually moving through the loop – observing, orienting, deciding and acting over and over again until the fight is over.
Watch the following video from the movie “Top Gun” and see if you can track the pilots moving through the OODA Loop.
As you can observe the basic decision framework is designed for fast paced decision making. Now you may not be in a fighter jet but in fast paced disaster or crisis situations characterized by VUCA this can be a very usable framework both individually and as a team.
If you think about it every single thing you do in your life, every decision you make, is an OODA Loop. Being aware of its structure and how to best practice it, then, can give you an advantage in whatever context you are operating. Let’s take a look at an expanded view of the OODA Loop to get a better understanding of the process.
Observe means more than just “see,” it’s something more like “actively absorb the situation.” Observation includes your own situation, other stakeholder situations, and the environment more broadly. It includes all the dimensions of that environment: the physical, mental, and moral dimensions. The observation phase is data gathering in the broadest sense of the term.
Orient: You must add meaning to all your observations. Boyd considered this the most crucial aspect of the OODA Loop. It includes understanding your genetics, cultural heritage, and previous experiences, then analyzing and synthesizing hta with all the observations you made. The goal of orientation is to find mismatches; errors in our previous judgement or in the judgement of other. As a general rule, bad news is the best kind because as long as you catch it in time, you can turn it to your advantage.
Decide: The decision stage is the transition into the final stage of acting. For groups or organizations, the decision stage may require a series of meetings or discussions to adjust the strategy and roadmap based on the new orientation. Organizations that are successful in fast paced environments have an organizational rhythm that allows them to make decisions more rapidly. Organizing to learn is also a process that can speed decision making as team develop their own approaches to the Loop.
Act: Acting is carrying out the decision. What was the result? Whatever the outcome, you observe what happens, orient based on the new information and go through another loop.
Understanding the model a bit more, we can summarize the process in four steps:
- We observe the outside world and the result of our previous actions.
- We take time to orient – analyzing and synthesizing everything we learned in the observation phases,
- The orientation guides our decisions and actions
- The result of those actions becomes more information that begins the next cycle of observation
Boyd’s work looked at how any individual or organization could thrive in an uncertain world.
He saw that one way people react to uncertainty is to try to eliminate it. They try to close themselves off from uncertainty.
This always makes things worse in the long run.
Individuals, organizations, cities, and nation-states thrive as parts of open systems. If they close themselves off, they suffocate.
Openness creates uncertainty and opportunity. You can not get one without the other. The people I know who have the most opportunities in their lives are the ones who are best at living with large amounts of uncertainty.
How do you open yourself up?
In essence, you interact by staying open to people and source of information coming from diverse points of view and by living in a way that is in alignment with our stated values.
This sounds great, but is uncommon. There is a strong tendency for people to close themselves off from different points of view and isolate themselves.
How many significant beliefs have you changed your mind about in the last year?
Reality is constantly changing. If you aren’t changing your beliefs about it, then you’re falling out of sync.
One last point. Keep in mind that that the cycle works at all levels of organizational life. The speed with which the loops turn at each level is relative to whether the decisions are personal, tactical, orperational, or strategic. In addition the leadership culture of the organization is important.
For example, in the following two diagrams we can imagine the different levels of decision making – the size of the circles indicate the speed that the responsible team moves through the loop. In the Positive Leadership Model the organization is able to move more quickly because of a common orientation and empowerment. In the negative leadership model – the lack of trust and a common orientation will impair the process.
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